http://www.trendsman.com/
Stocks have recovered too far and too fast for the super-bearish scenario. A market needs a distribution period before a huge fall. The distribution period was the 2007-2008 head and shoulders top. Also, since we are 10 years into a bear market, who exactly is left to sell? People were wiped out in the tech bubble, the housing bubble and in the recent huge decline in stocks. Since we are in a secular bear market (and most would agree) stocks are unlikely to make new highs anytime soon.
Interestingly, there is a secular bear market template that can help us project 2010 and the few years after. We are in the fourth secular bull market since the 1890s. The current bear market is following the exact path of the last three. The crash of 2008 happened in 1974, 1938 and 1907. The huge rebound of 2009 happened in 1975, 1938, and 1908. The structure and size of these three massive rebounds is a key point for 2010 as we project the future of the current rebound.
Showing posts with label Market Timing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Timing. Show all posts
13 January 2010
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